Outlook 2024

 

Outlook 2024: The Culture Wars Will Go On

What does 2024 hold for Canadians?  There is the economy.  For most of us, that means, "Do I have a job?" and "Does it pay enough?".  Seniors on fixed incomes struggle with rising costs.

There is tax.  We pay a lot of it.  We despair as we know our government does not wisely and fairly manage our tax dollars.  There will be no tax cuts in 2024.

Young people at the stage of leaving home don't imagine owning a home or having a family, as did their parents' generation, because we have entered the new economy of 2024 and things don't seem to point that way anymore.

Economically, the New Year means understanding new, emerging financial trends. Since the Bank of Canada's interest rate acts like a thermostat for how hot the economy and inflation run, the current 5% central rate is going to stay around for quite a while to moderate the consequences of the Liberal’s bad spending habits.  Many Canadians will be required to renew their mortgages in 2024 at higher interest rates, forcing them to cut back on expenses elsewhere.  Some will be forced to sell.  There will be payment shock for many.

Meanwhile, average Canadians will continue to bear the cost while the government repeats the tired old political shibboleth, "We have your back."  Socially, our society seems to be at war with itself.  It's almost a contest to denounce one another for the latest invented social misdemeanor.  Everyone else must be politically correct, while those who shout the loudest and call down others have little accountability.

We hear “diversity is our strength”, a slippery phrase indeed that is used to open the door of permission for every excess imaginable.  The tried and true, “unity is our strength to face adversity,” has been replaced like unfashionable clothes, dumped in the bin.

And there's modern technology.  The Internet and social media have great benefits, hope, and promise. We all now carry a cell phone which is our personal computer, connecting us to the world of both opportunity and degradation.  But social media has unleashed the dark side of human nature, where every sin imaginable is advertised, where conspiracies are invented each week, and so-called news is distrusted and discounted as propaganda.

And here's the bad news: As the Canadian culture war continues, nothing will change in 2024.  Alas, humanity has been here before.  We recall the “society of lies” that was the daily existence in the old Soviet Union.  No one dared speak the truth for fear of social and economic consequences.  We are aware of the layered social discourse within a dictatorship, where everyone lies and special information is its currency, to be traded and manipulated for one’s survival.

Pravda (Truth) in the USSR was the most pervasive lying newspaper in history.  But in Canada during the year to come, we will see a continuation in that downward direction, where traditional news media organizations increasingly rely on government financial largesse and become even less trusted by citizens.

The cacophony of the newsy independents will mix truth with speculation and expand their private followers (subscribers) who regurgitate their bias, excluding most non-conforming opinions.  People will pay to hear what they want to hear.

Canada in 2024 will also struggle with national unity.  The deluge of information or social noise will cause some to withdraw and cocoon to a more comfortable social zone that seems comprehensible.  It could be observed as the modern style of tribalism, where an identifiable group becomes somewhat isolated and autonomous, where outsiders have little awareness of their neighbour’s social world.

Politicians will seek out every obscure group to establish an apparent special connection.  There will be more 'special days,' 'commemorative weeks,' and 'theme months' proclaimed by the political class, to the degree that few will pay any attention. This 'divide-then-claim' will increase in 2024.

At the international level, the World Economic Forum will continue to promote “The Great Reset Agenda” where the self-righteous will deride Canadian governance.

Additionally, COP (Conference of the Parties) is an international political climate meeting held each year by the United Nations, designed to cajole nations to prevent supposed human-caused interference with the climate.  COP29 climate talks in 2024 will be in a city where one of the world’s first oil fields developed 1,200 years ago: Baku, Azerbaijan.  The focus is to eliminate fossil fuels.  Protests and civil engagement will take center stage, in a nation with restrictions on free speech, and Canada will have to deal with the infuriation of this spectacle.

And so, 2024 will be a year of choice for Canadians.  Our personal hopes as well as our national character will be challenged.  In 2024, democracy will be under attack.  The system of government that allows people to choose their leaders and hold them accountable is facing pressures around the world.  Many countries are having elections, with four that could have a global impact.

The most watched will be the presidential race in the United States.  Another key election will be in India, the world's largest democracy.  The impact of these elections on geopolitics, and global business will be enormous, shaping the priorities of some of the world's largest and most influential economies.

Taiwan will continue to be a flashpoint for US-China relations with the its election challenging China.  The election in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim-majority country and a rising economic power will be a test of its democratic resilience and its role in Southeast Asia.  The impact of these elections on geopolitics and society will be enormous.

The slowdown in China, the world’s second-largest economy and the largest trading partner of many countries and regions will be a 2024 concern.  China is facing multiple problems such as an aging population, high unemployment among younger workers, declining productivity, and environmental and real estate crises.

In 2024, democracy will be under stress, as authoritarian leanings will seek to make a mark in upcoming elections in response to poor governance.  Populist movements will challenge the malaise of established institutions.  The global economy will face multiple uncertainties.

“Peace, order and good government” is our national guidepost.  It is our historical definition of how Canadians see ourselves, both personally and for our nation.  It is the Canadian counterpart to the American “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” and the French “liberty, equality, fraternity.”

In 2024, we will likely have the opportunity to choose “good government” to replace the present dismal failure at the national level.  We must learn the good governance of self, while we choose our national destiny.  We must put our personal lives in order, to better face life’s adversity, as we demand order rather than hypocrisy from our leaders.

Peace in 2024 may seem elusive.  Some seek personal peace and satisfaction through self-indulgence or substance abuse.  We also observe those who have little inner peace, are the ones who disturb the public peace.  With wars and rumours of war, the world needs peace.  Blessed are the peacemakers.  We understand real peace is more than the absence of conflict or cultural noise.  It is a presence deep within.

Writing to his youthful follower Timothy nearly 2,000 years ago, the great Apostle Paul said, "For God has not given us a spirit of fear and timidity, but of power, love and self-discipline." (2 Timothy 1:7, NLT)

So, we must put our personal lives in order and choose wisely, so that we may engage the challenges of 2024.